Does a broken trendline keep going? Yes.
Across every upper-trendline break approached from below on rungs 1-4, price goes on to reach the next grid level 63.5% of the time. The strongest slices run higher still – up to about 70% when the trendline was actually drawn on the chart; open the breakdown to see where.
Upper (falling) trendlines approached from below, rungs 1-4.
- follow-through rate, rung 1, approach from below, far distance
- 0.721
- follow-through rate, rung 2, approach from below, mid-far distance
- 0.726
- follow-through rate, rung 2, approach from below, far distance
- 0.757
- follow-through rate, rung 3, approach from below, mid distance
- 0.739
- follow-through rate, rung 4, approach from below, mid distance
- 0.72
Most of what we've measured so far in this study lands close to a coin flip – price goes the way you'd hope maybe 52 to 56 times out of 100. Trendline breaks, under one specific condition, do better than that.
The condition: price is approaching an upper trendline from below, and it breaks through. When that happens, the move tends to keep going in that same direction – through the break – about 72 to 77 times out of 100. That's the strongest, most repeatable number the atlas has produced. It isn't a one-off cell with a handful of trades behind it either – each of these readings comes from 225 to 304 separate cases, which is a solid sample for this kind of measurement.
This pattern shows up on the four faster rungs of the ladder (the 21-minute clock up through the 89-minute clock). We are not claiming it holds everywhere – other rungs and other approach directions were not part of this reading, and this entry should not be stretched to cover them.