// learn · myth-checks
Trading myths,
graded against the tape.
Every trader repeats them. Almost nobody checks them. We ran the market’s favorite sayings against six years of real Nasdaq-100 futures — every clean case, not a hand-picked few — and let the data hand down the verdict.
No cherry-picked charts. No hindsight. Just the tape.
4
Myths tested
608,792
Outcomes measured
six years of NQ futures
2 / 4
Busted by the data
0
Cherry-picked charts
// myth
When support breaks, price keeps falling.
Out of 451 clean breaks, only about 15 in 100 kept falling to the next floor down. The other 85 stalled, chopped, or turned back up.
// myth
Price bounces off support.
About 72 in 100 bounces off a 15-minute floor traveled to the next level up. This one is real — with one honest footnote.
// myth
Breakouts run.
Fewer than 12 in 100 breakouts above a 4-hour ceiling reached the next level up. A third of them stalled out right at the edge.
// myth
A trend flip means follow-through.
When the trend rolled over on the 15-minute chart, price followed through about 59 in 100 times — every year for six years. Modest, but real.
This is the honest half of what we do: publish the tests, wins and losses alike. When a pattern holds up out-of-sample on our validated engine, that gets graded on camera too — back to Learn.