// myth-check
The myth
“A trend flip means follow-through.”
When the trend flips, does price actually follow through?
Most myths on this page get busted. This one doesn’t. When our trend line rolled over on the 15-minute chart, the follow-through showed up — a little more than half the time, consistently, for six straight years.
A "trend flip" is when the market’s short-term average rolls over — the smoothed line that was pointing up turns down. The saying is that once the trend flips, price keeps going that way. Unlike the others on this page, this one mostly holds.
How we tested it
We found 1,719 downward trend flips on the 15-minute chart over six years and asked: after the flip, did price follow through to the next level down before turning back up?
Overall it followed through 58.9% of the time — and, crucially, it cleared the 50% coin-flip line every single year. It is not a jackpot. But a repeatable tilt that shows up for six straight years is exactly the raw material a real strategy is built from.
The gap between 59 and 50 is small. Small, repeatable, and every year — that’s an edge.
What it means
This is the kind of thing our indicator, Z, is built to find — not a magic signal, but a small honest tilt that survives across years. It is still geometry, not profit, and trading costs would eat into it. But consistency like this is what earns a closer look — and, eventually, a graded-in-public test.
// every setup, on the tape
All 1,719 clean setups from the test — winners, losers, and the ones that ran out of room. Tap any one to see the exact chart.
Verdict: REAL EDGE — this myth is a small, real edge. See all myth-checks →